Final Blog

According to the IPCC’s 2007 Climate Change report, the Miami region is likely to experience a one-degree to one and a half degree Celsius rise in temperature. Which is relatively low when compared to the rest of the world, mostly notably the North Pole that will see dramatic increases in temperature. Miami being located in the sub-tropics, already experiences uniform warm temperatures year round. The report mentions that colder days and nights are going to be less frequent and warm days and warmer nights, as well as heat waves, will become more recurrent throughout the world. Due to its location, Miami is likely to experience higher temperatures and receive more precipitation due to erratic climate patterns as well as to cyclonic activity. [i]

When discussing potential climate change effects on Miami and the great South Florida region, the discussion almost entirely revolves around the area having a low elevation, at some points at sea level. [ii] On average Miami city proper sits at 6ft (1.8m).  Miami’s low lying coastal, topography makes it exceedingly susceptible to the sea level rising, as well as storm surges from tropical cyclones.

There are three main processes causing the sea level to rise, and the IPCC gave projections for the each of them for the ensuing century, and all of them are likely to affect Miami. The first is by thermal expansion where the sea could potentially raise by17-centimeters. The second contributor is from melting glaciers. This is estimated to increase the sea level by 10-12cm. The last process is by the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The Greenland is estimated to contribute 2cm in sea level rise. If conservative estimates are correct there will be a .29m increase in sea level before the year 2100. If the higher estimates are correct the sea level could rise .40 meters by 2100.  Yet, the IPCC makes mention that these are merely estimates and if more drastic melting occurs, the sea level could rise even higher.  If the Greenland ice cap were to melt entirely it could cause the ocean level to rise by 6 meters. The IPCC also notes that as much as 33% of coastal land and wetland habitats are likely to be lost in the next hundred years if the level of the ocean continues to rise at its present rate.

[iii]

To make matters worse, besides Miami plausibly turning into an American Venice, the IPCC reports contend that there is likely to be more intense cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Miami is the largest city mostly likely to be hit by a hurricane[iv]. They claim there has been steadily increasing cyclonic activity in the Atlantic since the 1970’s and much more notably than other parts of the world. Although the IPCC makes mention that it is hard for them to maintain a high confidence in there assertions due to lack of historical tracking and statistics of cyclone activity, they discern that the warmer water temperatures are least likely increase the intensity of these hurricanes and potentially the frequency.

These scenarios would most certainly adversely affect Miami’s economy. As of 2011, Miami is the fifth most visited city in the country. [v] Furthermore, the port of Miami has the designation of being “the cruise capital of the world”.  One in seven of the entire world’s cruise passenger’s start from Miami. Of Miami’s 256-billon dollar gross metropolitan product, nearly 18 billion is derived from the tourist industry7, which come to the region for the warm climate and numerous beaches.

As this video shows, the areas most likely to be altered by a dramatic rise in sea level would be Miami Beach; the area tourists are most likely to visit. (Based off of a 6M increase)

I suspect the cruise industry would also be negatively affected in ways not immediately ostensible. As the IPCC notes, islands are much more susceptible to rises in the sea level since they already have a naturally low topography. Most of the cruises departing from Miami, head to island nations and municipalities in the Caribbean. These countries infrastructures would likely be hurt from these effects (beach erosion, tropical cyclone activity, storm surges, droughts) and would decrease demand in tourists traveling to there. Consequently, there would be fewer passengers leaving the port of Miami.

Furthermore, Miami already has difficulties in hindering beach erosion, the beach of course, being one of the enticing factors to visit South Florida. Although through beach nourishment processes, they’ve been able to replenish lost sand, the government has run out of places to dredge it from and have considered purchasing it from neighboring tropical nations. [vi] This is only going to be exacerbated by a rise in sea level as storm surge and tropical cyclones will likely dissipate more parts of the beach.

6

Miami has already taken large steps in increasing beachfront property, but this might be to not avail as the areas climate becomes more erratic.

Ultimately, Miami's economy is multi-faceted enough that even if the tourist industry tanked, Miami would still be able to function (albeit with a high unemployment rate and weaker economy). But, if the worse of the predictions come true, and Miami is partially underwater, it will severely hurt the cities infrastructure. The financial district would have to move as well as whole neighborhoods that are not inundated with water. Moreover, if a powerful enough tropical cyclone were to hit the city, there is a potential for Katrina like devastation to the economy and infrastructure, which of course would take year to bounce back from.

There are several mitigative measures Miami can do to prevent and lessen damage from climate change. Dade County has started putting rock structures to hold sand in place. This has a two fold positive effect where it maintains the aesthetic of the beach, allowing it to still be a desirable destination for visitors as well as lessening storm surge. The Army Corp of Engineers estimates that prevented nearly 20million dollars in damage from Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  Furthermore, it would behoove the citizens of South Florida to replant marshes along beachfront property, as this would impede future storm surge as well as an increase in sea level.

Most importantly and not reserved to just the people of Miami, Florida, the citizens and nations of the world need to make deeper strides in cutting greenhouse gas emission. To do this we need to invest more in renewable technologies and have cooperation between different nations in setting and keeping goals in cutting greenhouse gases. This is of course, no easy task, especially with a nation as obstinate as the United States. Which on local level, cities such as Miami would also need to take it in their own hands to become more of a sustainable metropolis and try to foster and push this culture throughout the country.

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[i]  IPCC Synthesis report. 2007

[ii] "Miami, Florida metropolitan area as seen from STS-62". National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Retrieved August 19, 2007.

[iii] http://www.flconservationscience.org/pdfs/Donoghue.pdf

[iv] Tidwell, Mike (2006). The Ravaging Tide: Strange Weather, Future Katrinas, and the Coming Death of America's Coastal Cities. Free Press.

[v] http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/28/tourism-new-york-lifestyle-travel-las-vegas-cities_slide_7.html

[vi] http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0516/p01s03-ussc.html

6http://www.miami-beach-travelguide.com/beaches.html
7http://www.cnbcmagazine.com/story/shore-bet/1346/1/