According to the IPCC’s 2007 Climate Change report, the
Miami region is likely to experience a one-degree to one and a half degree
Celsius rise in temperature. Which is relatively low when compared to the rest
of the world, mostly notably the North Pole that will see dramatic increases in
temperature. Miami being located in the sub-tropics, already experiences
uniform warm temperatures year round. The report mentions that colder days and
nights are going to be less frequent and warm days and warmer nights, as well
as heat waves, will become more recurrent throughout the world. Due to its
location, Miami is likely to experience higher temperatures and receive more
precipitation due to erratic climate patterns as well as to cyclonic activity. [i]
When discussing potential climate change effects on Miami
and the great South Florida region, the discussion almost entirely revolves
around the area having a low elevation, at some points at sea level. [ii]
On average Miami city proper sits at 6ft (1.8m). Miami’s low lying coastal, topography makes
it exceedingly susceptible to the sea level rising, as well as storm surges
from tropical cyclones.
There are three main processes causing the sea level to
rise, and the IPCC gave projections for the each of them for the ensuing
century, and all of them are likely to affect Miami. The first is by thermal
expansion where the sea could potentially raise by17-centimeters. The second
contributor is from melting glaciers. This is estimated to increase the sea
level by 10-12cm. The last process is by the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland
ice sheets. The Greenland is estimated to contribute 2cm in sea level rise. If
conservative estimates are correct there will be a .29m increase in sea level
before the year 2100. If the higher estimates are correct the sea level could
rise .40 meters by 2100. Yet, the IPCC
makes mention that these are merely estimates and if more drastic melting
occurs, the sea level could rise even higher.
If the Greenland ice cap were to melt entirely it could cause the ocean
level to rise by 6 meters. The IPCC
also notes that as much as 33% of coastal land and wetland habitats are likely
to be lost in the next hundred years if the level of the ocean continues to
rise at its present rate.
To make matters worse, besides Miami plausibly turning into
an American Venice, the IPCC reports contend that there is likely to be more
intense cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Miami is the largest city
mostly likely to be hit by a hurricane[iv].
They claim there has been steadily increasing cyclonic activity in the Atlantic
since the 1970’s and much more notably than other parts of the world. Although
the IPCC makes mention that it is hard for them to maintain a high confidence
in there assertions due to lack of historical tracking and statistics of
cyclone activity, they discern that the warmer water temperatures are least
likely increase the intensity of these hurricanes and potentially the
frequency.
These scenarios would most certainly adversely affect Miami’s economy. As of 2011, Miami is the fifth most visited city in the country. [v] Furthermore, the port of Miami has the designation of being “the cruise capital of the world”. One in seven of the entire world’s cruise passenger’s start from Miami. Of Miami’s 256-billon dollar gross metropolitan product, nearly 18 billion is derived from the tourist industry7, which come to the region for the warm climate and numerous beaches.
I suspect the cruise industry would also be negatively affected
in ways not immediately ostensible. As the IPCC notes, islands are much more
susceptible to rises in the sea level since they already have a naturally low
topography. Most of the cruises departing from Miami, head to island nations
and municipalities in the Caribbean. These countries infrastructures would
likely be hurt from these effects (beach erosion, tropical cyclone activity,
storm surges, droughts) and would decrease demand in tourists traveling to
there. Consequently, there would be fewer passengers leaving the port of Miami.
Furthermore, Miami already has difficulties in hindering
beach erosion, the beach of course, being one of the enticing factors to visit
South Florida. Although through beach nourishment processes, they’ve been able
to replenish lost sand, the government has run out of places to dredge it from
and have considered purchasing it from neighboring tropical nations. [vi]
This is only going to be exacerbated by a rise in sea level as storm surge and
tropical cyclones will likely dissipate more parts of the beach.
6
Miami has already
taken large steps in increasing beachfront property, but this might be to not
avail as the areas climate becomes more erratic.
Ultimately, Miami's economy is multi-faceted enough that even if the tourist industry tanked, Miami would still be able to function (albeit with a high unemployment rate and weaker economy). But, if the worse of the predictions come true, and Miami is partially underwater, it will severely hurt the cities infrastructure. The financial district would have to move as well as whole neighborhoods that are not inundated with water. Moreover, if a powerful enough tropical cyclone were to hit the city, there is a potential for Katrina like devastation to the economy and infrastructure, which of course would take year to bounce back from.
There are several mitigative measures Miami can do to prevent and lessen damage from climate change. Dade County has started putting rock structures to hold sand in place. This has a two fold positive effect where it maintains the aesthetic of the beach, allowing it to still be a desirable destination for visitors as well as lessening storm surge. The Army Corp of Engineers estimates that prevented nearly 20million dollars in damage from Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Furthermore, it would behoove the citizens of South Florida to replant marshes along beachfront property, as this would impede future storm surge as well as an increase in sea level.
There are several mitigative measures Miami can do to prevent and lessen damage from climate change. Dade County has started putting rock structures to hold sand in place. This has a two fold positive effect where it maintains the aesthetic of the beach, allowing it to still be a desirable destination for visitors as well as lessening storm surge. The Army Corp of Engineers estimates that prevented nearly 20million dollars in damage from Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Furthermore, it would behoove the citizens of South Florida to replant marshes along beachfront property, as this would impede future storm surge as well as an increase in sea level.
Most importantly and not reserved to just the people of
Miami, Florida, the citizens and nations of the world need to make deeper
strides in cutting greenhouse gas emission. To do this we need to invest more
in renewable technologies and have cooperation between different nations in
setting and keeping goals in cutting greenhouse gases. This is of course, no
easy task, especially with a nation as obstinate as the United States. Which on
local level, cities such as Miami would also need to take it in their own hands
to become more of a sustainable metropolis and try to foster and push this
culture throughout the country.
[i] IPCC Synthesis report. 2007
[ii] "Miami, Florida metropolitan area
as seen from STS-62". National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Retrieved August 19, 2007.
[iii] http://www.flconservationscience.org/pdfs/Donoghue.pdf
[iv] Tidwell,
Mike (2006). The Ravaging Tide: Strange Weather, Future Katrinas, and the
Coming Death of America's Coastal Cities. Free Press.
[v] http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/28/tourism-new-york-lifestyle-travel-las-vegas-cities_slide_7.html
[vi] http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0516/p01s03-ussc.html
6http://www.miami-beach-travelguide.com/beaches.html
7http://www.cnbcmagazine.com/story/shore-bet/1346/1/
7http://www.cnbcmagazine.com/story/shore-bet/1346/1/
